By Nicholas Blanford
February 23, 1999
The five-nation Monitoring Group discussing Israel's annexation of Arnoun is likely to refuse to adjudicate on the case, which is widely regarded as a violation of Lebanon's sovereignty, and not an attack that directly threatens civilians.
The anticipated rejection of the complaint is likely to be announced as early as Tuesday. It would follow further calls for the UN Security Council to meet and discuss the appropriation of Arnoun and dash U.S. attempts to confine the issue to the five-nation body.
Observers believe that the United States had sought to limit the debate to the group to prevent the embarrassment of having to veto a meeting of the Security Council, if Beirut chooses to raise the issue with the United Nations. Furthermore, if the Monitoring Group tackled the complaint successfully, it would pave the way for the group to expand its role, eventually dealing with wider security concerns  such as the implementation of Resolution 425 Both the United States and Israel have hoped for such an outcome since the Jewish state first acknowledged the existence of 425 a year ago.
Lebanon has adamantly rejected broadening the scope of the group, insisting that 425 is unconditional and therefore no debate is necessary. Security sources said that the chairman of the group, Richard Ehrdmann, who is also the U.S. delegate, is suggesting that the group officially calls on a third party to act as an intermediary between Lebanon and Israel. The decision of the group not to assess the complaint will likely add pressure on the government to formally ask the Security Council to discuss the annexation of Arnoun.
Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee Monday said that the steps taken by the government since the crisis began were insufficient and that the Security Council should be asked to convene, despite the likelihood of a subsequent U.S. veto. In a statement, the committee also recommended "intensifying Lebanon's contacts with international and humanitarian organizations  especially as the international official and popular reaction has been minimal  and providing the residents of Arnoun with assistance."
Defense Minister Ghazi Zeaiter remarked on the lack of any reaction from the international community. "We were expecting the UN Security Council, human rights organizations and international public opinion to react impulsively regarding the aggressions taking place. However this will not prevent us from moving at the highest level for the sake of Arnoun," he said.
Former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri Monday raised the subject of Arnoun during a meeting with UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan in New York. Elsewhere, Israeli warplanes fired five missiles in three consecutive sorties into wadis between Jabal Botom and Zibqine during the afternoon. No casualties were reported.
